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NO 95   DECEMBER 2002 JANUARY 2003     CALENDAR
  UN UPDATE   NGO AND OTHER NEWS   FOCUS
S-G Says Global Response is Necessary
WHO Nominates New Director-General
UN Special Envoys Warn of HIV/AIDS and Famine
UN Launches International Year of Freshwater
S-G’s Message to World Social Forum
S-G Calls for Women-Focused Strategies in Africa
S-G Commemorates Morocco’s G-77 Leadership
Population Conference Adopts Plan of Action
Commission on Human Rights Elects Chairperson
2003 World Economic Prospects
S-G’s Report on Children and Armed Conflict
Security Council Considers Protection of Civilians
Year in Review: UN Peace Operations 2002
ESCAP Predicts Sustained Regional Growth
SIDS Comprehensive Review
UNEP Releases Report on Occupied Territories
UNEP Assessment of Afghanistan
UNEP Conducts DU Assessment
UN (Right to Know) Treaty on Pollution
CITES Adopts Conservation Measures
Basel Convention COP-6: Cell Phone Partnership
Ramsar Convention COP-8 Meets
20th Anniversary of Law of the Sea
ILO’s World Commission on Globalization
UNICEF Opens Office for Public Partnerships 

UN/NGO News
Student Conference on Human Rights Held at UN 
Elimination of Violence Against Women 
NGO News
MSF Top 10 List of Underreported Crises in 2002
Human Rights Watch World Report 2003
Kimberley Process Launched: NGOs
Remain Cautious
WTO TRIPs Council Fails to Reach Agreement
Greenpeace Action to Protect Mahogany Pays Off
International Conference on Conflict Prevention
Interaction on the Millennium Challenge Account
Other News
EC Releases Communication on Non-State Actors
WEF: Survey Points to Lack of Trust
Chronic Poverty and the Millennium Development Goals
State of World Population 2002: People, Poverty and Possibilities
UNCTAD Board Reviews Poverty Reduction in LDCs
State of the World’s Children 2003: Child Participation
ILO Report on Global Employment Trends 2003

 

 

TOP

  Chronic Poverty and the Millennium Development Goals 

 

Deborah Ewing for the Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC) writes about chronic poverty and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), saying that it is important to understand the links between long-term poverty, social exclusion, inequality and discrimination so that policy might be developed that helps the chronic poor to access not only the resources, but also the opportunities and social networks that will make them less vulnerable. Such an approach, CPRC says, has implications for the realization of all the MDGs.

At the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), held in Johannesburg (South Africa), international leaders recommitted themselves to the MDGs (see NGLS Roundup 98) to address poverty and deprivation. It is estimated that a minimum of US$50 billion a year—a doubling of current international aid—is necessary to meet the goals. On their past record, the chances of donors turning pledges into financial transfers on this scale appear slim. However, let’s assume the money will be forthcoming. There are other obstacles to achieving the goals. Aid often fails to reach its intended beneficiaries; the capacity to administer large amounts of additional funds is often lacking; donor agencies are still battling to coordinate and make more efficient the disbursement of funds; the goals do not take account of the need for targeting resources; and achieving them depends not just on spending money but also on realizing human rights and reducing inequality and exclusion.

But let’s assume all these issues will be addressed also. The first goal is to “Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.” More than a billion people live on less than US$1 a day and the target for 2015 is to halve the proportion of those in poverty. But this will still leave at least 900 million who cannot meet their basic needs in the next generation. Many of these people are living in “chronic poverty”—unable to get above the poverty line for several or many years, sometimes generations.

According to CPRC, the percentage of people living in poverty for at least five years is significant. By that measurement, 18-24% of people in South Africa, 25% in Ethiopia and 22-33% in India are chronically poor, and with the impact of untreated HIV/AIDS, these figures are expected to rise significantly. This raises many questions: what keeps people in poverty? What obstructs their “escape routes” and why are current development policies failing them?

A partnership of universities, NGOs and research organizations, CPRC is trying to get such questions onto the agenda of policy makers. CPRC argues that current methods of analysing poverty, based largely on indicators of income and consumption, fail to reflect the dynamics of poverty. So efforts to reduce poverty, focused largely on opportunity-based policies and economic growth, might push some people above the US$1 a day line, but fail to reach those living in chronic poverty.

If Millennium Goal number two “Achieving universal primary education” is achieved, 113 million out-of-school children will be enrolled by 2005. But simple enrolment is not an exit from poverty. Many children who do enrol are too hungry to concentrate or have to drop out due to poverty. CPRC stresses the multi-faceted nature of chronic poverty, and the need for policies that address multiple deprivation.

The third goal is to “Empower women and promote equality between women and men.” The target is to eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education. Access to education is certainly an indicator of equality but the level of education is only one factor in discrimination against women. In many countries, women are excluded from social, political and economic structures; they are discriminated against on the grounds of marital status, pregnancy and widowhood so that they are vulnerable to entrenched poverty. CPRC argues that many chronically poor people are unable to take advantage of opportunities because of intractable structures, isolation or exclusion. Effective poverty policy needs to make clear provision for the special circumstances of those whose poverty is persistent.

The sixth goal is to “Reverse the spread of killer diseases, especially HIV/AIDS and malaria.” Among the people especially vulnerable to chronic poverty are those with health problems and disabilities, and those in remote and isolated areas. Efforts to stem the spread—let alone the impacts—of HIV/AIDS are least likely to reach those already devastated by the pandemic and by those in rural or inaccessible communities. Action must be taken now if HIV/AIDS is not to become another route into poverty that persists from generation to generation.

CPRC’s case is that a focus on the chronic nature of many peoples’ poverty is key to effective policymaking. An awareness of chronic poverty will help to achieve the MDGs. But it will also ensure that governments and aid agencies anticipate and make provision for the needs of people—homeless, displaced, very old, excluded, disabled or living in war zones—who we know will still be in poverty even if the goals are met. This means vigorous anti-poverty efforts to eliminate poverty where possible by 2015, and properly planned and financed social protection for those people whom we know will remain vulnerable.

CPRC will produce its first Global Chronic Poverty Report in January 2004, and is seeking examples of individual case studies from organizations who feel that their work could be used to illustrate the experience of chronic poverty, including photographs, quotes, life stories, oral histories, and individual experiences.

Contact: Judith Randel or Tony German, Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC), IDPM, University of Manchester, Crawford House, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9GH, telephone +44-1612/752810, fax +44-1612/738829, e-mail <cprc@devinit.org>, website (www.chronicpoverty.org).

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 State of World Population 2002: People, Poverty and Possibilities

 

The latest State of World Population 2002, published by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is entitled People, Poverty and Possibilities. The 2002 report examines poverty and its relationship to population questions, including gender, health and education. The report also presents research-based evidence that promoting better reproductive health also promotes economic growth and reduces poverty.

State of the World Population 2002 finds that attacking poverty directly to accelerate development and to reduce inequality within and among nations has become a pressing global priority. The report argues that population concerns must be addressed in order to meet the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of cutting global poverty and hunger in half by 2015, reducing maternal and child mortality, curbing HIV/AIDS, advancing gender equality and promoting environmentally sustainable development.

The report says that in order to meet these goals in developing countries, urgent action is needed to combat poor reproductive health, unwanted fertility, illiteracy and discrimination against women. Countries that invest in health, including reproductive health and family planning, and in education and women’s empowerment, register slower population growth and faster economic growth. UNFPA says a decline in birth rates increases the proportion of working-age people in the population, giving developing countries a one-time opportunity to increase productivity and savings, providing the basis for future progress.

On the other hand, the report states that inadequate efforts to provide reproductive health services and combat gender inequality result in continued high fertility among the poor; perpetuating poverty and inequality within both households and nations.

By most measures, the gap between rich and poor, globally and within countries, has been widening, the report notes, with the difference in per capita income between the world’s wealthiest 20% and the poorest 20% growing from 30 to 1 in 1960, to 78 to 1 in 1994. It fell slightly to 74 to 1 in 1999. Poverty, poor health and fertility remain highest in the least developed countries where population has tripled since 1955, and is expected to triple again over the next 50 years.

The report calls for a combination of income-based, indicator-based, and participatory-based information to be used to assess poverty and derive policy implications, and says that institutions should have incentives to use this information for planning purposes.

Poverty and Gender 
The report notes that more women than men live in poverty and the disparity has increased over the past decade, particularly in developing countries. Reducing the “gender gap” in health and education reduces individual poverty and encourages economic growth. While economic growth and rising incomes reduce gender inequality, they do not break down all barriers to women’s social participation and development. The report calls for specific action to ensure that social and legal institutions guarantee women equality in basic legal and human rights. It also says women need access to or control of land or other resources, equitable employment and earnings, and social and political participation.

Poor Health: A Consequence and Cause of Poverty
Of all health areas, reproductive health has the largest gap between rich and poor, the report notes. Poor women have less access to family planning and care during pregnancy and birth, more early and unintended pregnancies, and face greater risks during pregnancy and birth. For women in developing countries, poor reproductive health is responsible for one-fifth of the burden of disease, and 40% for women in sub-Saharan Africa.

Poor women face a risk of dying during pregnancy and birth that is up to 600 times higher than for women in developed nations. A woman’s lifetime risk of dying due to maternal causes is one in 19 in Africa, one in 132 in Asia, one in 188 in Latin America, compared to one in 2,976 for women in more developed countries. The report says that investment in basic health services in developing countries is only a fraction of what is needed. On average, developing countries are spending only 34 cents per capita for basic health services compared with an estimated US$3.26 for the recommended package of public health interventions.

Pointing out that high prevalence of disease goes hand in hand with poor economic performance, the report warns that productivity losses from ill health could amount to roughly US$360 billion per year in developing countries within two decades. In countries where a high proportion of the population is at risk of severe malaria, average income is less than one-fifth that of non-malarial countries.

Poverty and Education 
The State of World Population 2002 finds investments in education bring substantial returns. However, the report also notes that although overall access to basic education in many developing countries has risen substantially over the last decade, the poor are still less likely to attend school. In many countries, most children from the poorest households have no schooling. A recent study of 35 countries in West and Central Africa and in South Asia showed that in ten countries, 50% or more of 15-19- year-olds from poor households never completed grade one.

While the “gender gap” in education has narrowed over the last decade, the relative disadvantage still keeps girls from enrolment in secondary education in most of South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and several other developing regions. About 31% of women were without any formal education in 2000, compared to 18% of men.

The evidence from a range of developing countries suggests that a larger percentage of public spending on education goes to government actions that benefit the wealthy. Many countries would reach the goal of universal primary education by raising enrolment among the poor, the report suggests.

Population, Poverty and Global Development Goals 
Achieving many of the Millennium Development Goals depends on the universal availability of family planning and other reproductive and sexual health services. UNFPA says the essential requirements are to target assistance directly to the poor, to reduce their costs, and to give them a voice in policies and programmes that affect them. UNFPA says underserved groups include the rural poor, urban migrants, refugees and displaced persons, and adolescents.

Reproductive health-care during pregnancy and birth, safe delivery, family planning and the prevention of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV/AIDS is most effective as part of an integrated package, the report finds. Specific action is needed to protect preventive services like reproductive health. The poor cannot afford to pay user fees, which have deprived millions of poor people, particularly women and children, of the care they need. Integrated approaches, covering different needs, empower people to set their own course out of poverty. Microcredit schemes are among the most effective and often include other services such as literacy and family planning.

HIV/AIDS and Poverty 
The reports finds that HIV/AIDS is both a result and a cause of poverty. It says the pandemic is killing millions of people in the prime of their lives, and threatens development in poor countries, where the impact is hardest among the poor. It is linked to another vicious cycle: falling productivity leads to economic decline and undermines public services, driving people into poverty and increasing the risk of HIV transmission.

The report highlights the need for comprehensive reproductive health programmes as a way to prevent unwanted pregnancies and to turn the course of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. UNFPA is calling for increased donor support for contraceptive commodities and condoms for preventing sexually transmitted infections, including HIV/AIDS, saying current funding is far below the approximately US$1 billion required annually.

Taking Action Against Poverty
According to the report, social programmes need to be oriented to more directly target the needs of the poor, including underserved groups, to give them a voice in the policies that affect them, and to include them in programme design, implementation and monitoring.

Spending on basic reproductive health and population programmes in 2000 was US$10.9 billion, US$6.1 billion short of the US$17 billion the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) agreed was needed to move towards universal access to reproductive health care by 2015. Donor countries contributed US$2.6 billion in 2000, less than half of their US$5.7 billion commitment.

Contact: Kristin Hetle, Chief, Media Services Branch, UNFPA, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017, USA, telephone +1-212/297 5020, fax +1/212/557 6416, e-mail <hetle@unfpa.org>, website (www.unfpa.org).

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  UNCTAD Board Reviews Poverty Reduction in LDCs

 

The Trade and Development Board of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) held its first Executive Session on Least Developed Countries (LDCs) from 2-4 December 2002 in Geneva. One of the main issues discussed was whether current national and international development policies could meet the challenge of poverty reduction in LDCs.

The meeting was informed by the analyses of UNCTAD’s Least Developed Countries Report 2002 entitled “Escaping the Poverty Trap” (see Go Between 92), as well as a series of panels composed of trade and finance ministers and high ranking government officials from LDCs, representatives of various international organizations, including the World Bank, research institutions and NGOs.

The “Poverty Trap”
Participants tended to agree that an effective way to approach poverty reduction in LDCs was to view the problem in terms of how to escape the poverty trap, which the UNCTAD report describes as a vicious cycle where widespread extreme poverty has effects that cause generalized poverty to persist. According to UNCTAD, the heart of the problem lies in the lack of domestic resources to promote investment and productivity (which is apparent in very low savings rates), combined with the depletion of environmental assets resulting from survival strategies. The poverty trap is compounded by an unfavourable external economic environment, such as unsustainable debt burdens, declining financial flows, falling and unstable commodity prices and lack of market access for exports from LDCs. Geographical disadvantages, such as no direct access to the sea, infertile soils and endemic diseases (notably HIV/AIDS and malaria), are also adding to the problem for many LDCs. Combined, these factors are causing a deep structural crisis of slow economic growth.

Unsustainable Debt Burdens
Many of the panellists took a critical view of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the HIPC Initiative had led to lower debt service payments, they suggested that it was not working for a number of reasons: because the criteria used to assess “debt sustainability” (debt/export ratios) were based on over optimistic export earning projections; the slowness with which countries were getting to completion point (when debt relief is committed); and excessive and inappropriate conditionalities. Outstanding debt owed by LDCs continues to weigh heavily on public expenditures and discourages private investment.

Some participants argued that it is necessary to rethink debt sustainability analysis. If measured against the costs of achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs, see NGLS Roundup 98) by 2015, some said it would require not only total cancellation of all debt owed by LDCs, but dramatic increases in official development assistance (ODA) as well. One participant stressed the fact that a very sizeable proportion of ODA to LDCs is not used for development purposes but to service existing debt obligations.

The PRSP Approach
Participants recognized that the Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) framework promoted by the World Bank and the IMF represented a potentially important departure from past practices. However, according to some, important weaknesses exist due to a number of factors, including: increases in the number of conditions; the problems of specifying appropriate macro-economic frameworks; a low-growth orientation in the initial PRSPs; and weak State capabilities in general. As a result, it was not clear as yet whether the PRSP process was making a positive difference. At worst, it was said, the process could emasculate States even further.

One NGO participant argued that there was obvious tension between the need to reach completion point for debt relief as quickly as possible, while, on the other hand, a considerable amount of time was needed to engage in a genuine, well-informed and participatory PRSP process (particularly given LDCs’ dramatically reduced State capabilities, notably as a result of past structural adjustment programmes). A logical conclusion, she said, was to de-link debt relief/cancellation from completion of a PRSP. A senior World Bank representative noted that the governments that fund HIPC relief do not apparently share the same opinion.

Falling Commodity Prices
Participants pointed out that many LDCs are heavily dependent on single or very few commodities for their exports. In these countries, the ability of international trade to act as an engine of growth and poverty reduction has been short-circuited by falling and unstable world commodity prices. For example, in the early 1990s, earnings by coffee producing countries were some US$10-12 billion and value of retail sales of coffee, largely in industrialized countries, was about US$30 billion. Now the value of retail sales exceeds US$70 billion, but coffee producing countries only receive US$5.5 billion, with producer prices at the lowest levels in 100 years.

Some participants emphasized the need to identify elements of an international commodity policy that can support the achievement of international poverty reduction goals, which would include initiating concrete measures required to mitigate the adverse consequences of excessive price instability and long term decline in world commodity prices on the economies of the LDCs. The absence of international measures and policies to address the problems of low and unstable commodity prices was found to be a key missing link in the current international approach for poverty reduction in LDCs. The international community should take concrete initiatives including resuscitating compensatory financing facilities to offset the effects of commodity price shocks on the economies of the LDCs, participants proposed.

Contact: Charles Gore, Senior Economic Affairs Officer, UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland, telephone +41-22/917 5944, fax +41-22/917 0046, e-mail <charles.gore@unctad.org>, website (www.unctad.org). 

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  State of the World’s Children 2003: Child Participation 

 

This year’s report, about child participation, focuses on the responsibility of adults, calling for governments worldwide to consult children when developing policies or to involve them in community measures. “Children and adolescents have proved that when they are involved, they can make a difference in the world around them. They have ideas, experiences and insights that enrich adult understanding and make a positive contribution to adult actions,” State of the World’s Children 2003 says.

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) report calls for optimizing children’s participation, which it says will involve a “redrawing of the adult world.” The report says it also means “children being encouraged to develop and refine their competencies and put democratic values into practice. It depends on adults sharing control, power, decision making and information. If children are to have a voice, they need access to information that is both timely and understandable to their particular intellectual stage of development.”

A three-year survey of 40,000 children worldwide undertaken for the report found that children “have doubts about the usefulness of voting as a method of improving their lives and do not see government leaders as role models.” The report suggests that child participation can take various forms of involvement, engagement and commitment, and not all child participation is active, social, purposeful, meaningful or constructive. “Children need information, support and favourable conditions in order to participate appropriately and in a way that enhances their dignity and self-esteem,” the report says.

State of the World’s Children 2003 cites numerous examples of how children, when listened to and given a chance to act, have been able to bring positive change in their communities. In the province of Baluchistan (Pakistan), where the female literacy rate is 2%, local boy scout troops began lobbying education officials to allow girls to attend their schools. Their efforts resulted in 2,500 new girls enrolling in school in the first year. In the Abia state of Nigeria, students from a local high school organized a campaign to educate the region’s 25,000 Afugiri population about the importance of immunization, and hundreds of children were immunized at local health clinics as a result.

“I think society gains from young people and children’s participation because of the freshness that children and young people bring to issues,” UNICEF Executive Director Carol Bellamy said. “They might not have the most feasible solutions all the time, but they rarely just assume that it’s business as usual. So there are more opportunities, broader ideas thrown on to the table. And from those opportunities more success is possible.”

The reports says that full participation of children and young people is necessary in order to meet the goals of “A World Fit for Children,” adopted at the May 2002 Special Session on Children, and for attaining the UN Millennium Development Goals, six of which pertain directly to children (see NGLS Roundup 98).

The report also asserts that there is a serious downside to leaving children out. It cautions that when children are excluded from the process of decision making and are provided few opportunities to engage constructively in matters that directly affect their lives as they mature, they fail to develop vital skills, such as the ability to express themselves, negotiate differences and make responsible life choices.

The report provides a number of economic and statistical tables and finds that Iraq’s child mortality rate has nearly tripled since 1990 to levels found in some of the world’s least developed countries, from 50 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 133 in 2001. Iraq’s regression over the past decade is by far the most severe of the 193 countries surveyed, with only two countries outside Africa—Afghanistan and Cambodia—now ranking worse than Iraq on UNICEF’s indicator.

The UNICEF report points out that, globally, 150 million children still suffer from malnutrition, that 120 million school-age children are not in school (the majority girls), that 6,000 children and young people are infected with HIV/AIDS every day, and that there are almost 13.5 million AIDS orphans around the world. The report argues that engaging children and young people and including them in the decision-making processes and in the prevention efforts that affect their lives is essential to addressing these problems. The reports also stresses that access to information is a matter of survival in many situations, especially in the midst of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. A lack of knowledge about the disease is widespread among young people, and, based on surveys from 40 countries, more than 50% of young people aged 15-24 harbour serious misconceptions about how HIV/AIDS is transmitted.

“Listening to the opinions of children does not mean simply endorsing their views,” the report notes. “Rather, engaging them in dialogue and exchange allows them to learn constructive ways of influencing the world around them. The social give and take of participation encourages children to assume increasing responsibilities as active, tolerant and democratic citizens in formation."

“Enabling children and adolescents to participate constructively in their communities and nations is crucial to nurturing their inherent optimism and preparing them for a constructive and meaningful adulthood,” said Ms. Bellamy. “If we fail to promote child participation from an early age, we are missing an amazing opportunity to deepen democracy and human dignity around the world.”

Contact: Cecelio Adorna, Chief, Office for Public Partnerships, UNICEF, 3 UN Plaza, Room H8A, New York NY 10017, USA, telephone +1-212/824 6466, e-mail <cadorna@unicef.org>, website (www.unicef.org).

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  ILO Report on Global Employment Trends 2003

 

According to a new report issued by the International Labour Office (ILO) entitled Global Employment Trends, two years of economic slowdown have pushed the number of unemployed to new heights. ILO estimates that the number of unemployed worldwide grew by 20 million since the year 2000 to reach a total of 180 million at the end of last year. The report says the weakness of labour markets has reversed recent reductions in “working poverty” achieved in the late 1990s.  

“The world employment situation is deteriorating dramatically,” says ILO Director-General Juan Somavía. “While tens of millions of people join the ranks of the unemployed or the working poor, uncertain prospects for a global economic recovery make a reversal of this trend unlikely in 2003.”

Particularly hard hit have been women and youth, who often have jobs that are especially vulnerable to economic shocks. The report also notes that unemployed workers who were forced into informal jobs in search of work faced even more uncertainty due to the sector’s lack of unemployment or social security coverage.

Among the major findings in the report: 

—At the end of 2002, the number of working poor, or workers living on US$1 or less a day, resumed its upward trend, returning to the level of 550 million recorded in 1998; 
—While the global economic slowdown and post-11 September developments increased unemployment worldwide, Latin America and the Caribbean were hit hardest, with recorded joblessness rising to nearly 10%; 
—To absorb new entrants into the labour market and reduce working poverty and unemployment, at least one billion new jobs are needed during the coming decade to get on track for the UN Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015. 

“Our measures of unemployment largely record the jobless who have some form of social protection,” Mr. Somavía said. “The record numbers on the dole worldwide is worrying enough, but even more disturbing is the evidence of worsening conditions in the informal economy of the developing world where the struggle to survive on poverty wages is getting even tougher.”

Economic Prospects and Regional Trends
The report notes that unemployment began to grow soon after the “information and communication technology (ICT) bubble burst in spring 2001, sparking an economic slowdown.” The aftermath of the 11 September attacks in the US brought further shocks and amplified the economic downturn. Slower growth in industrialized nations meant job losses in the export-oriented industries of developing countries, the report says. Worst hit were labour-intensive, export-oriented sectors, such as the garment industry, which mostly employ women.

In addition, weakening confidence among investors exposed the financial fragility of countries in several regions, with the ensuing crises putting many people out of work, as was the case in Argentina where unemployment increased to above 20% in 2002, with effects being felt in neighbouring countries. Armed conflicts and violence also contributed to higher unemployment and poverty in countries as far apart as Colombia and Nepal. In the Middle East, joblessness spiralled in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, while the recession in Israel continued.

The report finds that employment growth in industrialized countries decreased between 2000-2002, with the exception of Italy and New Zealand, where employment growth continued in 2001 but at the cost of falling productivity. Overall, unemployment has been rising steadily in the industrialized countries, from 6.1% in 2000 to 6.9% in 2002. In the European Union, unemployment decreased between 2000 and 2001, from 7.8% to 7.4%, but began rising again in 2002 to 7.6%. Meanwhile, in North America, unemployment increased rapidly in 2001 and 2002, from 4.8% to 5.6% in the United States and from 7.2% to 7.6% over the same period in Canada.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the 2001 global economic slowdown sent the unemployment rate skyrocketing in many countries. Falling economic growth increased joblessness in almost all of Latin America and the Caribbean between 2001 and 2002, bringing the unemployment rate to nearly 10% despite fewer people entering the work force. Youth unemployment in the region hit 16% in 2001, up from 12% in 1997, with nearly all new jobs for young people emerging in the informal economy.

According to the ILO, Asia suffered most severely from the bursting ICT bubble, which cut exports to the industrialized countries. Child labour and human trafficking remain major issues for the Asian region as a whole. South-East Asia faced the 2001 downturn just as it was beginning to recover from the 1997-1998 financial crisis, posting a rise in unemployed from 6% in 2000 to 6.8% in 2001, with a slight fall to 6.5% projected for 2002. Individual South-East Asian countries varied considerably. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, which depend heavily on trade, suffered from exposure to global economic trends. In contrast, Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Viet Nam sustained high growth rates, due to improved access to markets in industrial economies or improved performance in the agriculture sector.

East Asia also recorded significantly lower output growth and deteriorating employment during the two-year period with joblessness rising from 3.2% in 2000 to 3.6% in 2001 and 4% in 2002. ILO says that while the official figure covering the unemployment rate in urban areas of China was 3.6% in 2001, recent estimates suggest that it might now be as high as 7.5% as a result of high underemployment in the agricultural sector and of ending the practice of keeping redundant workers in the public enterprises’ employment roles, often known as “labour hoarding.”

South Asian economies proved resilient in the face of the global economic difficulties during 2001-2002. Nevertheless, security concerns, poor weather conditions, a slowdown in exports and declining tourism revenues caused the employment situation to worsen. Poverty increased, as did the number of working poor. The region’s unemployment rate rose from 2.9% in 1995 to 3.4% in 2002, with unemployment rates in Pakistan climbing in recent years to nearly 8%. The unfavourable employment situation in 2001 and 2002 also points to an increase in the number of people with low incomes and poor working conditions in the informal economy, rather than sharp increases in unemployment rates.

The report says that while sub-Saharan Africa managed to sustain a fairly constant economic growth rate (though in per capita terms it is often below 1%), the open unemployment rate increased from 13.7% in 2000 to 14.4% in 2002, and estimates for 2002 may be revised due to the growing food crisis. In addition to child labour and job loss due to conflicts, an issue of growing importance for the region is the “brain drain” which syphons off much-needed human capital. The health situation, especially HIV/AIDS, is also having an impact on human capital and the report cites a recent study in Tanzania that showed the HIV/AIDS epidemic was forcing more and more children and juveniles aged 10-19 into the labour force as the number of adults aged 20-35 fell ill or died.

Middle East and North Africa experienced a dramatic decline in overall economic conditions over the past two years with gross domestic product (GDP) growth falling from more than 6% in 2000 to 1.5% in 2001. Dismissals and redundancies resulting from reductions in the size of the public sector pushed up unemployment, which reached double-digit levels in some countries. Youth unemployment was high in some countries, including Syria, Algeria, Bahrain and Morocco. Moreover, the Gulf countries are increasingly adopting policies to replace migrant workers with their own nationals, a move that could have significant consequences for employment as well as remittances to countries supplying labour.

Unemployment in transition economies is on the increase again after falling from 13.5% in 2000 to 12.6% in 2001. Despite the economic recovery and high growth rates these countries experienced during 2000 and 2001, unemployment returned to the 13.5 level in 2002 due largely to the continuing trend of enterprises seeking to become more competitive by phasing out labour-intensive technologies and ending labour hoarding. At the same time, governments are cutting employment in the public sector. Accelerating structural change in anticipation of accession to the EU has also pushed up unemployment in the candidate countries.

Employment Prospects are Uncertain
Nearly 60% of the world’s labour force will be in Asia by 2010, with China alone making up one-quarter of the global labour force. The other developing regions (sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean) will also account for an increased portion of the world labour force by 2010. Meanwhile, the share of industrialized countries and transition economies in the world labour force will decrease to about one-fifth by 2010. Thus, the bulk of the jobs that need to be created by 2010 must come in Asia (60%) and sub-Saharan Africa (15%). 

“If these jobs are to contribute to alleviating poverty, they must be productive and offer decent conditions,” Mr. Somavía said. “Both faster economic growth and policies to promote the creation of decent and productive work opportunities are needed.”

Recommendations
Greater unemployment and poverty will place severe pressure on governments’ budgetary targets, given the fragile financial position of many countries, the report says. Policy makers should focus on measures to secure and spread the recovery and ensure that faster growth yields the maximum number of decent work opportunities, reduces unemployment and poverty, and restarts employment growth.

The report says a “pro-jobs” policy involving fiscal and other measures to jump-start growth and stimulate employment-intensive investment is essential. This must be accompanied by an incentive structure for the private sector that favours the choice of employment creation.

Secondly, policy makers need to focus on reducing the vulnerability of developing countries and the poorest members of society to external shocks. Active labour market policies, including social safety nets, are needed to reduce economic insecurity in a globalized world. In addition, development strategies should include diversification of the output base to spread and dilute risks of vulnerability, a cut in industrial country tariff barriers to manufactured goods, reducing exposure to swings in commodity exports, and reduced protection of rich countries’ agricultural sectors. Also needed are stronger transport, energy and communications infrastructures.

Third, all countries should adopt “pro-poor” policies to help women and men secure productive and decent work in conditions of freedom, security and human dignity. This involves supporting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises and their integration into the formal economy as well as investment in education and health-care systems, which improve the ability of the labour force to work productively. In addition, ending restrictions on the right to organize, tackling discrimination and child and forced labour are essential steps toward the economic, social and political empowerment of the poor.

“Only through pro-jobs and pro-poor policies can we address this growing employment crisis and place decent work at the heart of economic and social policies,” Mr. Somavía says. “Faster economic growth is necessary, but it is not enough. Failure of policy makers to act now could have grave consequences for us all.”

Contact: ILO, 4 route de Morillons, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, telephone +41-22/799 6648, fax +41-22/799 7104, e-mail <ilo@ilo.org>, website (www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/ inf/pr/2003/1.htm).

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